Poll finds Democrats’ advantage among Hispanic voters continues to SHRINK

10/02/2024 / By Laura Harris

A recent NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll has revealed that the Democratic Party’s advantage among Hispanic voters continues to shrink and is currently at its lowest level in four presidential cycles.

The poll, conducted from Sept. 16 to 23 among 1,000 English- and Spanish-speaking Latino voters, found that Kamala Harris holds 54 percent of support among registered Latino voters while Donald Trump is at 40 percent, with six percent undecided.

This 14-point lead is lower than the advantage Democrats have typically enjoyed in the recent cycles, where previous Democratic candidates beat their Republican opponents by anywhere between 33 to 44 points.

Democratic candidates won among Hispanic voters by 33 points in 2020, 38 points in 2016 and 44 points in 2012.

This declining Latino support for Democrats has been evident among Hispanic men under 50 and those without college degrees, with Trump getting 51 percent support and Harris only getting 38 percent in both demographics. (Related: Polls: Trump’s approval rating among Black and Hispanic voters the highest a Republican has enjoyed in 50 YEARS .)

And while Harris maintains a strong lead on issues like immigrant rights, abortion and crime, Trump holds an edge on inflation and cost of living, the economy in general and in securing and controlling the border.

Trump could win Latino voters if he focused on how he handled the pre-pandemic economy

This shift among Latino voters presents an opportunity for Trump’s presidential campaign to highlight his handling of the pre-pandemic economy.

“Republicans, I think successfully, have built the perception that they are good on the economy. That opens up opportunities for them,” said Clarissa Martinez De Castro, vice president of the Latino Vote Initiative of the Latino advocacy organization UnidosUS. This organization conducts some of the most in-depth analyses of Latino voting habits in the United States.

Abraham Enriquez of the conservative Latino advocacy group Bienvenidos US noted that the opportunities De Castro spoke of hinge on Trump’s “understanding of the changing coalition that is the Hispanic vote.” He pointed out that a significant portion of Latinos on voter rolls are now second- and third-generation Americans, who increasingly prioritize economic policies over immigration issues.

“Two-thirds of Hispanics on the voter rolls are second- and third-generation Americans, meaning that we are assimilating to American culture better. English is predominantly our first language,” Enriquez said on a Trump campaign press call in September.

“Most of us have college degrees, and we care more about policies that uplift economic opportunity, rather than be bunched into what the Democrats would like to be focused on, which is these illegal immigration talking points that they think that Hispanic voters care about.”

In turn, De Castro concluded that the drop in the Democratic Party’s advantage over Hispanic voters could have big implications in the upcoming election.

“Republicans don’t need to win a majority of this electorate, so they can be a lot more surgical with their efforts,” De Castro said. “Democrats need to get at least the historic 60 percent or so that they’ve received from this electorate.”

Watch Republican lobbyist Matt Schlapp denouncing Kamala Harris as a “radical extremist” and her policies as “unacceptable to middle America” below.

This video is from the NewsClips channel on Brighteon.com.