Trump maintains substantial lead against Biden in six swing states that could decide the election

07/12/2024 / By Laura Harris

A recent poll has found that former President Donald Trump is able to maintain – and even expand – his lead against President Joe Biden in six crucial swing states that could decide the election.

The poll was conducted by the Democrats for the Next Generation in collaboration with Emerson College on July 8. It disclosed that Trump led Biden by at least three points in all but one swing state, Michigan, where Trump’s lead is narrower.

Specifically, the results show that in Pennsylvania, Trump has 48 percent (+5) to Biden’s 43 percent; in Wisconsin, Trump has 47 percent (+3) to Biden’s 44 percent; in Michigan, Trump has 45 percent (+1) to Biden’s 44 percent; in Nevada, Trump has 47 percent (+6) to Biden’s 41 percent; in Arizona, Trump has 46 percent (+4) to Biden’s 42 percent; and in Georgia, Trump has 47 percent (+5) to Biden’s 42 percent. (Related: Poll: Trump LEADS Biden in seven key swing states.)

These figures indicate a notable increase in Trump’s lead over Biden in Georgia (+1), Nevada (+4) and Pennsylvania (+3) compared to a similar poll in June.

In April, political strategist Doug Sosnik wrote in the New York Times that all these states, including North Carolina, will be critical in the upcoming election. If Trump wins just two states among Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Biden’s path to the 270 electoral votes necessary to win would become significantly more challenging, if not impossible.

“The key to Mr. Biden’s victory is to perform well in the three industrial states. If Mr. Trump is able to win one or more of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Mr. Biden’s path to 270 electoral votes becomes even narrower. If Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump remain ahead in the states where they are currently running strongest, the outcome of the election could come down to who wins Michigan and the two Sun Belt states where abortion will very likely be on the ballot, Arizona and Nevada,” Sosnik wrote.

Polls consistently show unfavorable trends for Biden, especially after the debate

Almost three months after Sosnik wrote his article, polls consistently showed unfavorable trends for Biden, especially after the debate.

For instance, a Suffolk University poll reveals that 41 percent of Democrat voters want Biden to withdraw from the 2024 race, with only 51 percent supporting his continued candidacy. A YouGov poll shows similar results where 72 percent of voters have concerns about Biden’s mental and cognitive health, with an equal percentage wishing for his exit from the race.

Meanwhile, a New York Times and Siena College poll shows Trump leading Biden by six points, the largest lead in Times polling since 2015; a Wall Street Journal poll shows Trump holding a six-point lead over Biden, his largest margin in a Journal survey; and a CNN poll shows Trump leading Biden by a margin of 49 percent to 43 percent.

Additionally, a leaked internal Open Labs poll shows Biden’s vote share in a head-to-head matchup with Trump declined by 0.8 percentage points, the largest single-week drop since late 2021.

These post-debate polls support election polling expert Nate Silver’s election model forecast analysis conducted after the CNN presidential debate on June 27. The analysis shows that Trump leads Biden by six points in the probability of winning the popular vote in November. This marks the first time Silver’s model has predicted Trump winning the popular vote, a feat last achieved by a Republican, George W. Bush, in 2004 with 50.73 percent. The forecast had Trump trailing by two points just a day before the debate.

Moreover, it assigns Trump a 68.4 percent probability of winning the electoral college, the decisive factor in U.S. presidential elections, compared to Biden’s 31 percent chance of reelection.

VoteRepublican.news has more on why Trump is winning and Biden is failing.

Watch Bill O’Reilly explain why former President Donald Trump governed better than his Democratic predecessor and successor.

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